The International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) has conducted an evidence based study of what Brazil stands to lose if the ban on fixed-odds betting and online gaming is implemented. Drawing on regulatory assessments, market estimates and suspicious betting data, IBIA CEO Khalid Ali examines the consequences for sports integrity, consumers and the regulated market.
On 25 September, Brazil imposed a nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting, including sports betting and online gaming, just 21 months after opening its regulated betting market. The measure is now being implemeted, while Congress considers whether it should become permanent.
Brazil’s regulatory regime and its related licences and ordinances, which were designed to protect consumers, monitor betting activity and safeguard the integrity of sport, have been in operation for less than two years. Prohibition now threatens to undo that progress, driving betting activity beyond regulatory oversight and weakening the mechanisms designed to detect and prevent match-fixing.
This is why we call on Congress to reconsider Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026 through an evidence-based assessment of its risks and impacts, supported by open dialogue with the industry. Cooperation between public authorities, sports bodies and independent integrity monitors must be maintained, while enforcement efforts should focus on blocking unlicensed offshore operators to protect consumers, taxable revenues and the market’s integrity.
What Brazil built and what prohibition puts at risk
In less than two years, Brazil authorised more than 80 operators, introduced customer identification requirements, targeted illegal betting sites and payment channels, and established a centralised self-exclusion system. Crucially for sport, licensed operators were required to monitor suspicious betting, report concerns and integrate with national or international sports integrity monitoring organisations.
IBIA’s comparative assessment of regulatory frameworks gives Brazil a rating of 77 out of 100, between Portugal (68) and Great Britain (86). For a market this young, that represents significant progress.
The value of Brazil’s regulatory framework lies in the intelligence it generates: suspicious betting patterns can be identified, assessed and shared with regulators, sports bodies and law enforcement. Without a functioning licensed market, much of that intelligence becomes harder to obtain, weakening the ability to detect and investigate potential manipulation.
Prohibition does not eliminate demand for betting
Leading industry market intelligence and data company H2 Gambling Capital estimates that, without a legal alternative, around 60% of activity currently served by Brazil’s regulated market, equivalent to roughly R$25 billion, could migrate to unlicensed operators. On that basis, the illegal market could rise from around R$17 billion to approximately R$42 billion.
The consequences extend well beyond lost tax revenue. Consumers could find themselves betting with operators beyond Brazil’s regulatory reach, without the same identity checks, responsible gambling safeguards or reporting obligations. At the same time, authorities would lose access to information that licensed operators are required to provide.
Prohibition would therefore weaken both consumer protection and the intelligence available to protect sport.
The integrity consequences
The implications for sports integrity are particularly serious. In 2025, the first full year of the regulated market, IBIA reported 25 suspicious betting alerts involving Brazilian sports, compared with an annual average of 11 alerts between 2021 and 2024.
This increase should not be interpreted as evidence that regulation made Brazilian sport less safe. Rather, it is consistent with improved detection and reporting within a market where licensed operators were required to identify and report suspicious activity.
Fewer alerts after prohibition will not necessarily mean less suspicious betting. They may simply mean less information about it.
This distinction matters. Suspicious betting alerts are not a measure of the extent of match-fixing. They reflect the activity that monitoring systems detect and report. If betting moves to operators beyond regulatory reach, the ability to identify suspicious patterns, trace accounts and share intelligence with investigators becomes significantly weaker.
The danger is not merely that suspicious betting will continue, but that it will become harder to detect and investigate.
Regulation, not prohibition, is the answer
After nearly two decades working on betting integrity, one lesson is clear: the critical question is not whether betting exists, but whether it operates within a framework where risks can be identified, monitored and acted upon. Prohibition does not remove those risks. It makes them harder to detect, investigate and address. Brazil’s regulated market was not without weaknesses. Advertising, consumer protection, operator oversight and enforcement against illegal providers all needed further attention. These are arguments for improving regulation, not abandoning it.
IBIA urges Congress to reconsider the prohibition and allow the future of Brazil’s betting market to be determined through the ordinary legislative process. This should be informed by an open dialogue with the sector, with a clear risk assessment and a published impact assessment. The existing integrity framework, including suspicious betting monitoring, reporting and cooperation with authorities, must be preserved. Enforcement should focus on unlicensed operators, while gambling-related harms should be addressed through targeted measures within the regulated market.
Brazil has invested in building these safeguards. The priority now should be to strengthen them, not dismantle the regulatory framework that makes them possible.
The full brief, Brazil: The Cost of Prohibition, can be viewed here
