For all the noise surrounding the build-up for the 2026 World Cup, once the football started, North America delivered.
Fans who were skeptical about the expanded format and the logistical scale of a 48-team tournament spread across three countries have largely been won over by what they have seen on the pitch. All the talks of inflated train prices and ticket costs all went away once fans landed and games got underway.
Scottish supporters drank bars dry in Boston. Japanese fans discovered Texas barbecue. England supporters belted out Oasis in the shadow of the Azteca. Whatever concerns lingered before kick-off, the atmosphere has been everything the tournament promised.
The football itself has matched it. Cape Verde taking champions Argentina all the way. Norway shocking Brazil. Paraguay being the first team to beat the Germans on penalties.
The bracket has shifted more than once, and the betting markets have moved with it. As an online sportsbook tracking wagers across the country, BetMGM has a unique view of where American bettors are putting their faith.
With the grand finale at New York New Jersey Stadium less than two weeks away on 19 July, the data reveals a market that largely agrees on the frontrunner, but with a few interesting outliers worth paying attention to.
Spain: The Safe Pick Across 20 States
BetMGM’s data shows Spain as the most popular team to win the tournament by ticket volume, backed in 20 states including New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Nevada and Massachusetts.
The odds of +450 reflect both their form and their consistency, and American bettors have responded accordingly.
The case for Spain is straightforward. Luis de la Fuente has not lost a competitive game since taking charge of La Roja, and he delivered the Euro 2024 title with a squad that has matured further since.
In four games so far, the Spanish have not conceded a single goal, a defensive record that reflects a settled, disciplined unit rather than fortune.
Up front, Lamine Yamal has been the tournament’s most exciting young player, with Mikel Oyarzabal adding a goal return that tends to get undervalued relative to the attention Yamal receives. There are 20 states backing one team. It’ss a landslide in this kind of data. Spain have earned it.
France: Fewer States, Deeper Respect
Only two states back France to win the tournament, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, with odds of +500. That looks like a thin base of support until you consider what those two states represent.
Pennsylvania, home to Philadelphia’s dense European immigrant communities and one of the country’s most established soccer cultures, and Louisiana, with its deep French cultural ties and a fanbase that follows Ligue 1 more closely than most American markets.
These are not casual bettors picking a recognizable name like you would in an office pool. They know what France look like when they are properly motivated.
The 2022 final in Lusail remains one of the great World Cup matches. France lost on penalties after Mbappé’s hat-trick brought them back from 2-0 down, a result that has clearly never left the squad.
Didier Deschamps has built a group that looks like it has been waiting three and a half years to revisit that moment.
The draw has kept them apart from Argentina until a potential final at New York New Jersey Stadium, and Mbappé, now chasing Messi’s own all-time scoring record at this tournament, would be the central figure in a rematch that the sport would stop for.
The Trailing Pack
The data shows Spain and France holding the majority of the market, but the tournament itself has made a case for several other sides.
Norway, not represented heavily in the BetMGM data as a betting pick before the tournament began, shocked Brazil in the knockout rounds and gave Erling Haaland the kind of stage his club career had always denied him.
England showed resilience in a brutal game against Mexico and the altitude of the Azteca, grinding out a result that told a different story from their group-stage stumble against Ghana. This is a side under Thomas Tuchel that gets over the line in big matches.
And Argentina, the defending champions under Lionel Scaloni, are still here. They may not dominate the state-by-state map in the way Spain do, but a side containing Lionel Messi in the knockout rounds of a World Cup is not a team you dismiss. Scaloni has managed this group through harder moments than the ones they have faced so far.
Final Thoughts
Betting data reflects confidence, narrative and cultural familiarity as much as it reflects cold analysis, and the BetMGM numbers make that clear.
Spain’s dominance across 20 states is built on a track record that has given American bettors something to trust. France’s presence in two of the most soccer-literate markets in the country speaks to a deeper respect for what Deschamps’ side are capable of when the stakes climb. The trailing pack, Norway, England, Argentina- all carry genuine threat.
The World Cup has been unpredictable since the first whistle. Two weeks remain. The data points to Spain, but the football has a habit of disagreeing.
